Why did Toomey lose? Perhaps it was because Bush, Rick Santorum and the NRA backed a backstabber, taking the safe bet of a liberal that occasionally votes with the caucus rather than create strife in the ranks. Had they stayed out of it, there is little doubt that Toomey would have won.

All they had to do was keep their mouth shut. Just say something like “we’ll let the voters decide”. But no, they protected the incumbent because that is what politicians from political parties do.

The year is 2006, the place is Tennessee and the Republican party is splintered during a contentious primary. Conservatives are splitting the vote between two candidates, Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary, while moderates support Bob Corker. You don’t need a crystal ball to see what will happen: with all his millions, Corker can take advantage of the infighting and buy the election.

Where is Bush? Where is First? Where is Alexander? In Washington, studiously avoiding the entire affair. This time it’s “we’ll let the voters decide”.

In the end, the conservatives lose and we are stuck with a difficult to win race against a polished Democrat that convincingly denies that he is the most liberal congressman from Tennessee (eight out of nine years).

Had they backed a real conservative in the first place, we wouldn’t be seeing headlines like Democrats pin their hopes on man who is no liberal and Former Virginia governor touts Ford as “independent”. Or maybe we would; the press has come out full force behind Ford.

But at least Bush and company are here now. Bush came to Memphis and raised $1.5 million at a fundraiser held in a house. This was his second time Bush has raised money for Corker in less than a month and it seems that Laura Bush will be in Knoxville for a Corker fundraiser on 11 October. With the fact that Bush’s approval ratings are slightly higher in Tennessee than the rest of the country, his support won’t hurt.

Last week’s Zogby/Wall Street Journal poll shows Republican Bob Corker leading Democrat Harold Ford Jr. by 5 points:

HT to TeamGOP newsletter

So why is Corker shaking up his campaign office just four weeks before the election? Perhaps because it will take a campaign manager like Tom Ingram, who managed all of Lamar Alexander’s gubernatorial campaigns, to stave off the Ford attacks. The most recent Mason-Dixon poll indicates that the race is a dead heat.

For now, the battle remains dirty. A Ford television ad accuses Corker of taking three pay raises as mayor of Chattanooga while “freezing the pay of Chattanooga’s police and firefighters”, a charge hotly denied by both the fire chief and the president of the Chattanooga FOP. Further, review of the city budget clearly shows that the ad is false.

The same ad claims Corker is worth more than $200 million, a figure Corker denies although he has not released actual figures. Yet:

Financial disclosures filed by Corker, which do not require specifics, state that he has assets somewhere in a range of between $63.7 million to $234.5 million and liabilities between $24.7 million and $126.5 million.

The combination means a net worth could be as high as $209.8 million, a figure that Michael Powell, senior adviser to the Ford campaign, says was used in choosing a figure for the ad. The figures also mean Corker could actually have a negative net worth.

Typical that a campaign would take the high estimate and market it as fact when the available information is so inexact.

Not that Corker’s ads are equally misleadin
g. For instance, WREG reports that Corker’s claim of a 50% drop in crime while mayor of Chattanooga may be overstated. According to FBI stats, the crime drop was “only” 28.7%:

Chattanooga police spokesman Tetzell Tillery said the discrepancy may stem from differences in how the local police and the F-B-I classified certain kinds of crime.

If anyone could get a 28% drop in Memphis crime, I’d nominate them for king.

As for me, on election day I’ll just remember that Harold Ford earned a failing score of 21 from the American Conservative Union, that Ford has earned an “F” from the Gun Owners of America (the only no-compromise gun rights organization) and that the NRA has officially endorsed Bob Corker.

And after all, even an Arlen Specter is better than a Robert Byrd.

Today we will get an accurate count on the people voting in the Republican primary, and the results could be surprising. That’s because Corker’s juggernaut has stalled. Corker, for all his money, has evidently hired the worst opposition researcher working in politics. His negative ads against Bryant and Hilleary are stupid, wrong, and more importantly in politics, they do not pass the smell test. …

But the real meat of Cagle’s analysis lies in looking ahead to the race against Ford:

However, if Corker should win the primary, how much credibility will he have running ads about Congressman Harold Ford Jr.’s voting record? …

Corker will no longer be running against conservative Republicans. He will be running against a well-funded, confident and poised candidate: the hottest thing in Tennessee as well as the national media. Congressman Harold Ford Jr. is the political story of the year, in-state and nationally: Will he be the first black Southern senator since Reconstruction? A young man from a scandal-ridden family overcoming adversity and winning over Southern rednecks is an irresistible story line. Junior will be earning “free media” on network and cable television, and you can expect glowing profiles in national magazines and newspapers.

Junior will also have the money to answer Corker on television. Those niggling little accusations and stories about Corker will suddenly get legs with a push from the Democrats and a sympathetic candidate. Those tax returns no one seemed to care about in the primary may become sought-after items. Those illegal aliens hired by a Mud Island subcontractor will have their life stories told.

I have had conservatives tell me recently they don’t see any difference between Corker and Ford and they may vote for Ford to “pay back” the Republican establishment for “buying” the nomination. Tennessee Right to Life leaders have already said they will not endorse Corker in the general.

Vote for Ed Bryant today.

[HT to Blogging for Bryant]

My friends, it is time to toss Van:

1. Going into early voting, Ed was ahead of Van in the polls.
2. Shelby County is Ed’s back yard and the number of voters that turned out for early voting set a new record.
3. On the average, there was light voting across the rest of the state, which is bad news for Van. He cannot win.
4. The light voting across the rest of the state is also bad for Corker. The unique combination of voting patterns gives me hope for the first time that Ed can beat Corker in spite of the money Corker is throwing at the election.

At this point, Van is out. A vote for Van is a vote for Corker who, incidentally polls the worst against Ford.

And really, in the end, there’s just not that much difference between Corker and Ford.

The decision is clear. Vote Ed Bryant, the true conservative in the race. Don’t believe me? Read Enduring Faith, Personal Integrity, Conservative Values by one who worked closely with Ed for almost three years.

And if anyone is looking for guidance as to how to vote for the forty county judicial races or 27 state judical confirmations take a look at my recommendations. Hours of research so you don’t have to!

Download and print the Complete AlphaPatriot’s Shelby County Voter’s Guide. Take it with you to the polls. Pass it out to your friends!

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Technorati Tags: Ed Bryant,
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In the poll released by UT this week, the margin of error was 7 points when looking at the Republican Senate Primary. When you subtract that out of the lead of Bob Corker over Ed Bryant, then Corker only leads by 4 points.

Poor Bob. All that money spent, and only a 4 point lead.

And, I heard at lunch hour a radio ad by Corker touting his missionary trip to Haiti and his belief that each life is precious. That may be true. A line or two later, the announcer states something along the lines that many Pro Life Leaders in TN support Bob Corker. That statement is false. Many do not. One or two might. Brian Harris of TN Right to Life has said that that organization will not support Bob Corker even if he wins the primary. TN Right to Life is the big dog among the right to life groups.

For the Corker campaign to air such an ad, they either don’t care that they are misleading you, or they don’t think it will matter – that, come election time, enough barely informed voters will vote for Corker without knowing the details.

No offense to Van, but he cannot win at this point and is only splitting the conservative vote.

Ed Bryant can win this race, Ed Bryant is a rock solid conservative, and we need to each look at our calendars and carve out time to go do campaign work for Ed.

This is exactly right. Liberal Bob Corker raised the most money and even kicked in a bunch of his own in a blatent attempt to buy this election. When the voters of conservative-trending Tennessee didn’t go for that, he began resorting to attack ads and misrepresentations of his positions.

Ed Bryant has the TN Right to Life endorsement because he is the true conservative in this race. AND he is our best bet to beat Ford Jr.